XV. Aruba

Update: Thurs 31-Jan 1330 hrs
The Persistence is currently working in the same general area as the last several days. Winds 25 kts with 6-10ft side seas. More later

Thurs 31-Jan 1040 hrs
The last several days saw outstanding progress in what was expected to be the roughest part of the search area. Last night, we learned why the local fishermen nicknamed this area “don’t go there”. The seas were a rather innocuous 2-3ft with pleasant 10kt breeze. Within an hour, the seas exploded into a 12-14ft torrent with 35kt sustained winds. After a few hours battling side seas the search team brought the sonar on deck amidst crashing waves of green water pouring over the back deck. We found an approximately 265ft long wreck lying upright on the seabed which is an eerie testament of this area’s volatile ferocity.

Slant range corrected side scan sonar image of a large wreck

3D Fly through of NW Aruba and the offshore bathymetry

Tues 29-Jan 1610 hrs

The Persistence left the dock at 0645 hrs this morning returning to survey what has been the roughest portion of the search area. The seas here are reliably 8-12 ft due to convergent water masses, strong stratified shearing currents, and opposing trade winds. Local fishermen have a name for it which roughly translates to "don't go there". For the last couple days we have been working in the heart of "don't go there" in atypically calm 2-3 ft swells. We have never seen it this calm out here. The timing couldn't be better. More later

Sun 27-Jan 2355 hrs
The Persistence left the dock this morning at 0740 hrs. The 15kt winds out of the east lapped up rather tranquil 2-3ft seas. It's as calm as we've ever seen it offshore here. The Aruba Coast Guard boarded the Persistence for a friendly visit at 0810 hrs this morning. For an hour we shared coffee, traded T-shirts, swapped stories, and showed them our progress. They were extremely impressed by the side scan sonar capabilities and 3-D bathymetric imagery. After a round of hearty hand shakes and a few good pictures, they boarded their approximately 30ft long rigid-hull inflatable boat and pushed off from the Persistence. With a smile they shouted to us, “Would you like a little demonstration?” At once, the Coast Guard took off with a sudden blast from two massive inboard engines. In no time the nimble boat was leaping wave to wave at nearly 40kts. Several times the boat came clear out of the water. It was thrilling not only to watch the playful demonstration, but to watch the trust build and friendships form.

Working with the Aruba police dive division, Coast Guard, and Port Authority has been an astonishing experience. Since December 15th we've established a solid working relationship based on openness and trust. Most of the successful rapport was due to getting the media hype out of the way and working together shoulder to shoulder through time. We've helped each other however and whenever we can. They've treated us with decency and respect and we have treated them as friends and allies, which they are. I wish we had a month ahead of the project just to ascertain the relationships and bonds. Although highly skeptical and suspecting in the beginning, it's clear we're all carefully and diligently working towards a common goal. It seems we share the same attitudes of integrity, courage, dedication, and hope. We’ve all struck an accord in the desire for closure and healing for the families involved and restoring the relationship between our beloved countries.

RV Persistence - Courtesy visit from the Aruba Coast Guard 27-Jan 0940 hrs

XIV. The Search Area

Fri 25-Jan 1630 hrs

Early on I was asked the following question by a reader: “do I believe in miracles and are we expecting a miracle to happen”? My response: “I do not have enough faith to be an atheist in times such as these. Perhaps a better question would be: what kind of miracles are we expecting?”
The miracle she referred to was whether we believed we would find Natalee Holloway based on the relative odds and unknowns. The question I returned was perhaps more poignant. How would our lives be changed in the process of finding her in light of the adversity and unknowns? I maintain my position that it is a much larger miracle to have lives and hearts changed than to overcome odds and solve unknowns.
Since the beginning of this search I have been witness to many miracles. I’ve watched loving wives gracefully supporting their husbands while waiting home alone with children for over a month. I’ve seen sons and daughters patiently and cheerfully waiting for their daddies to come home to them. I’ve seen hearts moved and changed to give generously out of love and conviction. I’ve witnessed trust build, bonds form, friendships established, lies replaced with truth, mistakes forgiven, and perhaps the greatest of all and hardest to fathom... genuine loving sacrifice.
While searching offshore Aruba from the shallows to the abyss, we have truly ventured into a new search area. We’ve been exploring the very essence of our human being discovering purpose, hope, strength, and love along the way.

Fri 25-Jan 0950 hrs
The Persistence leaves the dock this morning at 0730 hrs. Working during mainly daylight hours has been a welcome change for the crew and good for moral. The seas and winds have not been as severe lately. The last two days saw excellent progress.

3D Perspective view of bathymetry showing water depth in feet. Black contour interval is 100ft

Special Notice:
By John Silvetti-
The original search area surveyed by the R/V Persistence was selected based on numerous pieces of information provided by Dave Holloway, Tim Miller, investigations, interrogations, depositions and other information from local authorities. After compiling and reviewing the information, the search area was selected by Louis Schaefer and John Silvetti. Upon completion of the sonar runs in this area, 65 ROV dives were performed by Offshore Innovative Solutions (OIS) on targets identified by sonar. Divers from the Aruban Police Diving Division and Underwater Expeditions made several dives and retrieved samples which were delivered for analysis. Several targets in this first survey grid yet remain to be investigated by ROV which will occur in approximately one week when ROV dive operations recommence.

Selection of the next area, the “Extended Search Area”, was based on one single piece of information, a reported confession by one of the three suspects. This confession, as relayed to the survey team, has some credence. It involves the same type of disposal scenario, but better defines the search area. This information in combination with the weather patterns observed by the survey team since our arrival on December 15th left only one boundary to define. The team needed to observe the island from offshore on a small vessel at night to determine this boundary. Sounds easy….huh?

After 2 unsuccessful attempts using a local vessel due to fuel and mechanical problems, the decision was made to utilize the R/V Persistence’s Rescue Boat, the “Avon”. The Avon is a 16’ center console inflatable vessel powered by a 70 hp Tohatsu engine. Prior to dark, the Avon was launched from the Persistence and piloted to the Holiday Inn Pier by Captain Jim Graves. Later that evening, John Silvetti boarded the vessel with Capt. Graves, transited to the start point, and commenced an offshore run documenting the time and vessel position with a WAAS enabled hand-held GPS system. At one mile out, radio communications were confirmed with the Persistence. At six miles out, radio communications were again confirmed along with spot light identification as the Avon crossed astern of the Persistence. It was somewhere shortly after this point that Murphy boarded the Avon!

The weather was very similar to the recorded weather of late May, 2005. The seas were running 4-6’ with swells of 6-8’. It was rough for an Avon! Upon reaching the final destination point while documenting the final position, the engine sputtered and stalled. It never started again! Approximately 30 minutes of effort to restart the engine was fruitless. I believe that is when we noticed that we were taking on water! HELLO HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PROBLEM!

As we watched Aruba disappear over the horizon, contemplating our broken engine, a vessel taking on water and the fact that we are about to enact the emergency contingencies of our procedures, Capt. Graves stated, “ I am sure glad that it is so dark!” I took the bait. Why? Because I believe we would be scared to death if we could see how big these waves are! Persistence…Persistence….this is Avon on channel 16 ..over! Silence. Persistence…Persistence….this is Avon on channel 16 ..over! Five minutes of silence. Back up frequency. Persistence…Persistence….this is Avon on channel 09 ..over! Five minutes of silence. VHF comms failure. Ya gotta love Murphy.

Thanks to the support of Coast Guard Curacao, Aruban Port Authority and some unbelievable cell phone coverage, the Persistence plucked us out of the water approximately 16 miles offshore Aruba. We had acquired a tremendous amount of information to determine the last boundary and learned a few lessons:

1) Never use your lower back to absorb the shock of pounding seas when you are fat and out of shape.
2) Never get fat and out of shape.
3) No matter how complete and thorough your safety procedures are, never count Murphy out!

-John Silvetti

XIII. Stay the Course

Update:
Wed 23-Jan 1415hrs
The Persistence left the dock at 0700 hrs headed for the survey area. The winch is fixed, skies are clear, and the seas are calmer. The new crew are settled in and getting used the work flow.
More later

Tues 22-Jan 0915 hrs
The Persistence left the dock this morning at 0600 hrs, heading out to deep water. Last night, four replacement survey team members flew in to join the Persistence to relieve crew who has been here since the beginning, over a month ago. Although the new crew brings new energy, losing the battle-proven seasoned crew is bittersweet. Words fail to describe the level of trust and bond between the crew. Despite being in close quarters together since 15-Dec, missing holidays with loved ones, birthdays, anniversaries, rough seas, and many intense situations, NEVER was there a moment of bad tension between any of the crew. I trust the new crew will quickly bond and become seasoned to the terrain and conditions- both above and below the waves.
Happy Birthday sis - You're loved and missed.

Sun 20-Jan 2055 hrs- seas 8-10ft, wind E 30-35kts, continuing dead-heading sonar lines in 800-1100+ft of water.

20-Jan 1515hrs
The Persistence arrived dockside around 4am this morning after a rough night. 1415hrs - The Persistence pulls away from the dock to return to the deep water survey area.

A fundamental principle of Murphy’s Law states that if it can go wrong it will go wrong. When it fails, it will do so at the worst possible moment. This is not a result of chance or bad luck, rather the collision of engineering limitations with physics.
Increasing the water depth increases the length of cable paid out which in turn increases the strain on the winch due to the armored cable weight and drag. With roughly 0.5lb/ft of cable x 4000 ft of cable deployed = about 1 ton of cable dead weight on the winch. Increasing the speed either by towing faster or by adding swift ocean currents vectored in the opposite direction increases drag and therefore adds more strain on the winch. Large sea swells (10ft+) heaves and pitches the boat which pulls and drops the towfish significantly. Particularly large swells can shock-load the winch. This means there is a sudden added force which is unevenly applied to the winch.
Last night’s situation:
2355 hrs: The towfish is near the sea floor with 3500ft of cable out in about 900ft of water. A large submarine hill is rapidly approaching so we began spooling in cable as fast as the winch allows. Combined with the drag-strain of the cable, current speed, and large swells, the winch reached its engineered limits and failed at the worst possible moment. Unable to retrieve cable, the towfish was about to catastrophically collide with the seafloor. The only option was to significantly increase speed and immediately turn towards deeper water. The quick decision paid off as the towfish skimmed over the hill-face. Having narrowly escaped the immediate danger, the Persistence stayed in the deepest water possible while making gentle turns as the team fixed the broken winch. Just after midnight with 12-14ft swells amidst the emergency and with waves washing over the back deck, the crew feverishly repaired the winch. The stellar teamwork, excellent situational awareness, and quick thinking combined to successfully avoid disaster. Once the towfish was safe on the back deck of the Persistence we headed for the dock, wet, tired, and relieved.


Sat 19-Jan 1915 hrs

The Persistence left the dock at 1530 hrs heading back towards the deepest portion of the survey area. The weather has been continually rough and does not look like it will let up this evening or through tonight. Fortunately, we took on fresh water this morning which acts like additional ballast for the boat, reducing some of the roll. While in about 750-800ft of water we came across another unknown wreck. This wreck (perhaps an old schooner) is about 50-55ft long.
1915 hrs - seas building 10-14ft, wind 30+kts.

Unknown wreck approx. 55ft long schooner

Sunset 19-Jan

Rough seas 10-14ft seas 1830 hrs, Sat 19-Jan

Moments later - 1831 hrs, bow is buried beneath a 14ft swell

SPECIAL MESSAGE:
Fri 18-Jan 2335 hrs
We would like to specifically address one comment left on the blog which likely represents the sentiments of many.
“You guys have been out there for quite a long time now... I was really hoping for results by now. I can't help but begin to think she won't be found” -Overwhelming_Sadness

Quoting John Silvetti- Fri 18-Jan 2300 hrs
“It is easy to lose heart if one confuses expectations with hopes and desires. The nature of a marine search, especially one in which the method and disposition of the item you are searching for is unknown, requires a painstakingly slow and methodical disqualification process. The logic is no different than trying to find your car keys. The methodology is: you look where you were recently. We look where it is believed to be, based on evidence or reports. When you and I do not locate what we are looking for in the most logical place, we move on to the next logical place. Ultimately, we both confirm the old saying, “It is always in the last place you look”.
Unknown topography and terrain, combined with large seas have slowed us down but it has not stopped us. We have surveyed and investigated a large area, disqualified most of it, and moved on to an even larger area. At times our progress has been exceedingly fast and slow at other times. We do however, “STAY THE COURSE”....PERSISTENCE.

Our hopes and desires also were to find Natalee before Christmas so we could help bring closure to the Holloway family as our gift to them. Then, we could return home to our families to enjoy the holiday season and hug our children a little tighter... but, it was not meant to be that easy...and we understand.
–John Silvetti.”

XII. Perilous Seas

Update: Fri 18-Jan 2133 hrs
The Persistence pulls away from the dock at 1300 hrs heading northwest into deep water. The seas and winds have greatly diminished through the early morning hours. The crew grabs a few hours rest taking full advantage of the calm waters at the dock.
1655 hrs - the seas build to 6-9ft with the occasional 12ft+. Winds 35kts sustained with stronger gusts.
2130hrs - the seas were building steadily all day. We're forced to dead-head lines running acquisition with the seas at our stern. To maintain heading along the line the captain holds a 37-40 degree crab angle due to swift currents and strong winds.

Thurs 17-Jan 2320 hrs
The Persistence left the dock today at 1224 hrs. The trade winds are howling at 30+kts. The 8ft+ seas are growing and brimming with white caps rolling in from the northeast. The occasional 12-14ft swell rocks the Persistence mercilessly along with its inhabitants. Inside, life goes on as usual and spirits are high. Exceptionally large swells throw around anything that isn't dogged down. The galley clock gets thrown off the wall and is now stuck reading 8:35. It seems we also have high-tech self-clearing shelves, tables, and counters. Traversing around inside the boat is a novelty in high seas. People turn into walking pendulums making Z-shaped paths leaning to and fro 30 degrees. The comedy is abruptly interupted with a sobering reminder of the ocean's peril over the radio.

2100 hrs - A call comes on the radio from the Aruban Port Authority requesting the Persistence assist a vessel in distress. A sailboat named Michelle with 6 reported on board is adrift. In such strong winds and high seas it's possible the sailboat could have broken its mast. All we know is that they need immediate help. The search team picks up the sonar and immediately heads in the reported direction of the distressed vessel. For miles we scan the dark horizon as Curacao, Aruba, and the Persistence carefully monitor the radio. Finally, we receive a position and plot a bearing and range -4.5 miles, heading 210 degrees. After a while, the Aruban port authority once again raises the Persistence on the radio, only this time with a very different position. It seems not only is the Michelle adrift, she is very lost. I can only imagine what kind of hell the people on board are going through. Powerless, drifting, scared, alone, and at the mercy of perilous seas the Michelle hopes and waits for rescue somewhere offshore Curacao. The Persistence is called off its search and turns towards the Port of Aruba at 2300 hrs. Although unspoken, we all feel a sense of disappointment knowing the Michelle is still out there in danger.

XI. The Leviathan Lair

Wed 16-Jan 1700 hrs
The Persistence left the dock at 1345 hrs heading out to the search area. A broken wire delays acquisition for a while until it is properly diagnosed and fixed. 1700 hrs - sonar survey underway.
1830 hrs: seas building 6-8ft with occasional 12+ft.

Side scan sonar image showing rock outcrops inside the Leviathan Lair. Water depth over 1000ft. Towfish cleared rocks by less than 10ft.

Flashback: Sat 12-Jan 2000 hrs
Line by line through the night and day, the captain, navigator and I evade the beast. My eyes are focused and hands steady at the controls as the captain brings the Persistence around on line for one last joust through the Leviathan’s lair. Communication is clear and concise. The teamwork between the operator, navigator and boat captain is crucial to our success. The towfish descends where the sentient beast is waiting and ready. This time, the beast reluctantly submits and the Leviathan retreats to its lair after being bested time and time again. The Persistence claims the victory.

A prolonged operation of any kind at or near their limits often leads to trouble and breakdown. The Persistence has operated under strenuous conditions for over a month without incident, failure, or breakdown of any kind. After the battle with the beast, the Persistence heads to the dock for some needed preventative equipment maintenance and rest for the crew. A couple days rest after nearly a month without ceasing is a welcome break for all.

Sat 12-Jan 1340 hrs
The progress of the past couple nights embolden the search team and fortified our confidence to begin work on the deepest portion of the search area. After the bathymetric survey, a plan of attack was drafted and we set out into the depths. The previous search areas gave us the impression the seabed was a worn, tired, old beast with a relatively subdued attitude and benign character. However, adventuring into the depths brought us straight into the grasp of a much different beast. We found ourselves in the lair of the Leviathan.

Descending into the depths, 3000 ft+ of cable spools off the winch. The Persistence slows as the towfish fades far behind the boat. After a long while, the seabed- smooth and welcoming begins to come into range. We descend further, but proceed with a tense sense of danger. It's suddenly clear the beast was waiting for us with baited breath. The towfish narrowly escapes being devoured, skirting between several massive fang-like rocks. A large curled stony-tongue extrudes beneath the sonar, passing through the beast's jaws. The Persistence quickly fires the throttles forward vaulting the sonar away from the sea floor. Without hesitation, the mighty beast gives chase with surprising agility. Skimming over ancient carbonate spines and a bifurcated tail of current-quarried rock the towfish takes flight, besting the Leviathan.

With the lessons and limits learned from the first pass, we strategically withdraw before moving in for the fight. Line by line, the Leviathan and the Persistence battle all night and through the morning. The beast knows that with one slip the towfish belongs to him. We know that if our assault is flawless, the Leviathan will yield its secrets.

X. Persistence

Fri 12-Jan 1145 hrs
The seas calmed down dramatically since Wednesday. Last night was smooth sailing and saw double the progress of the previous nights.

Thurs 11-Jan 0030 hrs
The bathymetric survey of the new grid is completed. The search area now totals approximately 57 sq miles, compared to the original 22 sq miles.

Maritime map making has long been an integral aspect of ocean exploration. As adventure seeking sea-faring men of old expanded their frontier, master artisans such as Ortelius and Cicero painstakingly plotted their progress. Instead of producing drab plots where form follows function, they used their artistry to produce meaningful navigation aids and passionately capture the spirit of exploration into their product. Areas of the yet-unknown are filled with caricatures of sea monsters and mermaids.

Today, a new generation of maritime map making, perhaps ushered in by Heezen and Tharpe, provides a new look into the abyss. Hand-painted murals with Latin place names are now replaced with computer generated 3D perspective views with satellite imagery. The old merchant ships and frigates that once sailed these waters charting coastlines and reefs claimed by the sea can now be found and mapped. It's an interesting connection between the old and new and we sail the same seas.


Wed 09-Jan 1816 hrs
All Internet connectivity was lost for two days due to rough seas and equipment failure. The old adage "No news is good news" only applies on land. Offshore, the 'Law of the Sea' rules and no news usually just means "lost contact". The seas were 6-8ft with the occasional 12+ft swell. The past two nights were spent conducting a bathymetry-only survey of the new grid. The new grid more than doubles the original search area. If completed, the total area thoroughly searched will be 80% the size of Aruba. Currently, the seas are calm relative to what we've been experiencing. The four digits posted on the echo-sounder is a reminder of the limits being put to the test.

Every body of water near land has its own unique character, temperament, and color. The nature of water is governed by the trio of land, sea, and sky. The sea surface reflects the sky, the water column contains the turbidity from the land, and the seabed stares upward through the water column as long as the water allows it to. However, as the seabed falls away into the abyss, the color is always the same dark navy blue. Staring into these deep and dark waters reminds me that this island is surrounded by the same water that flows throughout our entire world. On the surface, the expanse of the sea divides us. Looking deeper, it is really what connects us all. Perhaps the sea gives a reflection of human nature and not just the sky.

Sun 06-Jan 1635

The seas abated sufficiently to maintain our progress through the night and into the early morning hours. The Persistence arrived dockside around 0430 hrs this morning. Rested and ready, the crew makes ready for departure at 1515 hrs. Now a routine, the crew toss the lines and we depart. Leaving the dock past the behemoth cruise ships reminds me of the opening scene from "Space Balls". Their shear immensity projects an image of being impervious to the seas.
Offshore, the seas are the same as yesterday, 5-8ft with the occasional 10ft swell.



Sat 05-Jan-1610 hrs
The Persistence arrived dockside at 0500 hrs after a long night offshore. A few hours sitting still at the dock is revitalizing for a few of the beleaguered crew. Outside, the winds are unrelenting and whip the sea into angry white caps which crash onto the protective reef skirting the harbor. Even the heartiest seabirds have taken cover. The tourist submersible Atlantis VI cancels its evening tour in lieu of being forced backwards by the driving currents. Inside, the Persistence is bustling with the daily chores of living on board a boat. With a whistle and a rumble, the twin Diesels comes alive without complaint. Once they’re warm, the lines are tossed and we’re off.

Brief squall

Sat 05-Jan- 0025 hrs
The wind and seas have not let up at all throughout day and night. Working in the rough conditions is taking its toll on some of the crew. Regardless, spirits and hope remain high as we push onwards. Working in side-seas proved unrealistic. The last resort is to dead-head straight into the seas without recording and acquire data with the swells moving with the vessel. Although time consuming, at least production is maintained even though it is at half the rate.

Many have confused adventure with inconvenience, trading the provocative for status quo. I believe exploration both in terms of our surroundings and within ourselves is the essence of human spirit. When denied, we're left feeling isolated and unknown. When we have the courage to search these depths, we learn the most about who we are and hopefully a thing or two about each other and our surroundings.

Fri 04-Jan-1557 hrs
The skies are clear and the winds are strong and steady. Wind 25kts gusting 30+. Seas 5-6ft, with the occasional 10ft+ swell. The seas are too rough to run sonar into the seas, so we shift to a different grid with lines running perpendicular to the dominant swells. Working in side-seas produces somewhat cleaner data, but takes a heavy toll on the crew rolling and heaving about inside the boat.

Thurs 03-Jan 2200 hrs
As the Persistence travels through the turquoise Aruban waters to start another day of searching, onlooking swimming seabirds and flying fish curiously come alongside the boat. We worked all day and will continue working through the night. As we work on, we maintain a rhythm yet avoid routine. Over-familiarity risks carelessness and worse, complacency. For any one of us to even momentarily lose our focus opens the door for utter failure. The tremendous progress so far was only made possible with a very strong team, excellent leadership, planning, and prayer. There have been many times when there is nothing to say, times when nothing can be said, and times when words alone cannot describe the situation. We will continue on through the night, until the beckoning glow of the rising sun silhouettes our return to the dock.

Wed 02-Jan- 1920 hrs
The first round of ROV dives are complete.
The Persistence leaves the dock at 0650 hrs. The relentless wind is SE 25-30 kts with 6-8ft swells and 3-4ft wind waves. The two wave forms occasionally add together producing impressive swells which toss around anything that isn’t dogged down. Simple tasks such as taking a shower become complicated and awkward. By now, the search team is well-seasoned to the conditions and terrain. The new grid poses new challenges but provides another chapter to be read. Inch by inch, mile by mile the search continues forward and the data is good.

02-Jan 1830-1900 hrs - At sunset